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Posts#USpol #GeoPol, #Russia, #US, #WarInUkraine #Trump, #Putin
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...share a common, supposedly, anachronistic worldview, and that is that of spheres of influence for the big powers, such as #Russia, the US, and (supposedly) China.
Let's hazard a guess based on the profiles we know of both world leaders. Firstly, #Trump needs a win because he wants to get the #NobelPeacePrize so badly. And also, he wants a deal that makes him look good and does make him and also b his allies in the #US a lot of money.
Now, there already is the #MineralsDeal on the table....
#Putin also wants #Minerals and he also knows that most of the minerals are in the eastern part of Ukraine that he occupies with his forces.
So what can be done with the one power that can spoil a victory for the two tyrants? Well, it has been done before and we don't have to look far back in time, #Minsk.
Let's take a further look at #Putin"s profile:
Like #Netanyahu, #Putin does #not* want negotiations, but he wants to *extend* the war instead. #Minsk, too, has shown, that even for
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#Putin also wants #Minerals and he also knows that most of the minerals are in the eastern part of Ukraine that he occupies with his forces.
So what can be done with the one power that can spoil a victory for the two tyrants? Well, it has been done before and we don't have to look far back in time, #Minsk.
Let's take a further look at #Putin"s profile:
Like #Netanyahu, #Putin does #not* want negotiations, but he wants to *extend* the war instead. #Minsk, too, has shown, that even for
...negotiations, military might and pressure are indispensable for #Russia to gain advantages on the diplomatic front.
#Putler would only agree to an armistice, if he would not stand to gain militarily anything anymore.
On the other hand, the recession and inflationary pressure in #Russia are gaining ground by the week. In my opinion, #Putin needs a freezing of the fronts in order to regroup, in particular economically.
Currently, small #Russian motorized brigades of about 2-3 soldiers are...
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...negotiations, military might and pressure are indispensable for #Russia to gain advantages on the diplomatic front.
#Putler would only agree to an armistice, if he would not stand to gain militarily anything anymore.
On the other hand, the recession and inflationary pressure in #Russia are gaining ground by the week. In my opinion, #Putin needs a freezing of the fronts in order to regroup, in particular economically.
Currently, small #Russian motorized brigades of about 2-3 soldiers are...
...infiltrating the #Military hub of #ะะพะบัะพะฒัะบ (#Pokrowsk.) 1) From there, it'll be relatively easy to reach
#ะกะปะพะฒะฐะฝัะบ (#Sloviansk,)
#ะัะฐะผะฐัะพััะบ (#Kramatorsk,)
#ะะฐะฒะปะพะณัะฐะด (#Pavlohrad,) and
#ะะฐะฟะพัะพะถัะต (#Zaporizhzhia.)Even if the front line were then frozen, Russia would be in a position to attack #Izyum and other cities in the #Donbas and #Donetsk region from the back at a further point in time.
If you ask me, most of the points of a deal between the two hegemonic powers, #Russia and the...
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...infiltrating the #Military hub of #ะะพะบัะพะฒัะบ (#Pokrowsk.) 1) From there, it'll be relatively easy to reach
#ะกะปะพะฒะฐะฝัะบ (#Sloviansk,)
#ะัะฐะผะฐัะพััะบ (#Kramatorsk,)
#ะะฐะฒะปะพะณัะฐะด (#Pavlohrad,) and
#ะะฐะฟะพัะพะถัะต (#Zaporizhzhia.)Even if the front line were then frozen, Russia would be in a position to attack #Izyum and other cities in the #Donbas and #Donetsk region from the back at a further point in time.
If you ask me, most of the points of a deal between the two hegemonic powers, #Russia and the...
#US, are indeed set. In my opinion, the chief open point is where the frontline will be frozen.
#FriedrichMerz and other #European leaders uttered surprise about the possibility of #US security guarantees for #Ukraine if a deal is struck. He mustn't be.
With #DonaldTrump, a deal is only valid as long as he deems it to be to his advantage. If he thinks it isn't to his advantage anymore, he will quickly drop it.
Like the toothless #Minsk II accords, any #Trump deal will be a "#Minsk III: "
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#US, are indeed set. In my opinion, the chief open point is where the frontline will be frozen.
#FriedrichMerz and other #European leaders uttered surprise about the possibility of #US security guarantees for #Ukraine if a deal is struck. He mustn't be.
With #DonaldTrump, a deal is only valid as long as he deems it to be to his advantage. If he thinks it isn't to his advantage anymore, he will quickly drop it.
Like the toothless #Minsk II accords, any #Trump deal will be a "#Minsk III: "
...#Ukraine will need to make huge concessions and will gain a temporary, fragile #Armistice and a further *illusion* of #US security guaranty.
Nothing shows the probability of my protection more than the ongoing attacks on #Ukraine even during the ongoing Putin-Trump summit in #Alaska.
#Zelensky's only remaining, but relatively feeble hope now lies with #Europe.
The introductory pie meme shows what is in store for #Ukraine.
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1) Military importance of #Pokrowsk:
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/krieg-ukraine-pokrowsk-100.html
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...#Ukraine will need to make huge concessions and will gain a temporary, fragile #Armistice and a further *illusion* of #US security guaranty.
Nothing shows the probability of my protection more than the ongoing attacks on #Ukraine even during the ongoing Putin-Trump summit in #Alaska.
#Zelensky's only remaining, but relatively feeble hope now lies with #Europe.
The introductory pie meme shows what is in store for #Ukraine.
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1) Military importance of #Pokrowsk:
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/krieg-ukraine-pokrowsk-100.html
I reckon, you're right if you write "With Trump, a deal is only valid as long as he deems it to be to his advantage".
The same is also true for Putin, if not to an even greater extent.
This is, in fact, a new world order.
There are no more rules. Might is right.
Not even being in a power's "sphere of influence" guarantees protection any more.
Ukraine is pretty fucked, as is the whole of Europe in the long run.
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I reckon, you're right if you write "With Trump, a deal is only valid as long as he deems it to be to his advantage".
The same is also true for Putin, if not to an even greater extent.
This is, in fact, a new world order.
There are no more rules. Might is right.
Not even being in a power's "sphere of influence" guarantees protection any more.
Ukraine is pretty fucked, as is the whole of Europe in the long run.
"...The same is also true for Putin, if not to an even greater extent.
This is, in fact, a new world order.
There are no more rules. Might is right."
Exactly, Mina!
There is only one point to add:
With #Putler, a deal is mostly not even worth the paper it is written upon. It holds only as long as you can back it up with military power. -
I reckon, you're right if you write "With Trump, a deal is only valid as long as he deems it to be to his advantage".
The same is also true for Putin, if not to an even greater extent.
This is, in fact, a new world order.
There are no more rules. Might is right.
Not even being in a power's "sphere of influence" guarantees protection any more.
Ukraine is pretty fucked, as is the whole of Europe in the long run.
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"...The same is also true for Putin, if not to an even greater extent.
This is, in fact, a new world order.
There are no more rules. Might is right."
Exactly, Mina!
There is only one point to add:
With #Putler, a deal is mostly not even worth the paper it is written upon. It holds only as long as you can back it up with military power.We agree on that, but it goes further than just the two people, Trump & Putin.
Each of them is part of a system of rule that won't easily go away, once they're gone.
Also, if we broaden the theatre: China is acting in the same way. E.g. it signed a treaty about internal autonomy for Hong Kong, and it gives a shit.
These are the three world powers, and they don't feel even bound to pretend to follow rules.
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